The possibility had hung in the air for some time, but when it happened, it happened surprisingly quickly. On April 18, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that the country would be heading for snap elections once again. The day before, Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the ultra-nationalist National Movement Party (MHP) and an ally of Erdoğan, had called for an early election on August 26 (rather than the scheduled November 2019 date). It soon became apparent that Bahçeli had not acted on his own. The following day, Erdoğan and Bahçeli met for about twenty-five minutes to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of a snap election, then declared that an early contest would in fact be held — on June 24.

So why did Erdoğan and Bahçeli call for early elections? What was so urgent that they couldn’t wait until next year? In public statements, Bahçeli and Erdoğan both spoke of the need to facilitate the transition to the new presidential system, which grants the president near-dictatorial powers (the product of a referendum last year plagued by charges of fraud). Yet it became clear that the real motivating factors were rather different: the situation in Syria, where Turkey has become a direct occupying power in the north; economic woes, which could quickly turn into a crisis; and the fear of mounting opposition to Erdoğan’s rule.

Ever since the Gezi Uprising in 2013, Turkey has witnessed a whirlwind of events: popular upsurges, a coup attempt, pivotal elections, changes in the political system, war within the country, war in Syria, bombing attacks. The country has been under an official state of emergency since a failed coup in July 2016, and the country’s economic model hit the fan in 2013.