It’s unlikely we’ll know the real result of this Sunday’s Italian election in the hours or even days after it takes place. This partly owes to the difficulties posed by the new electoral law: given the combination of “first-past-the-post” and proportional systems, early exit polls will offer no firm conclusions. But the really decisive factor is the question of governing coalitions. Shifts in voter opinion that will be revealed in the election on March 4 are quite a different matter from the actual formation of the new administration.

One prospect looming large on the horizon is a larghe intese (grand coalition) government, or what is more pejoratively termed an inciucio (stitch-up). Judging by opinion polls, a broad coalition including both Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia looks increasingly likely. Failing this, the possibility of some sort of fudge where power is delegated to neutral or technocratic figures on a supposedly temporary basis has also been mooted. The last six years saw a series of such arrangements.

The only force that can realistically hope to break this continuity and win a majority of seats in both houses is the center-right list, which currently polls at around 36 to 37 percent (perhaps two points short of a majority). This includes Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the hard-right Lega, the small post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia, and the centrist Noi con l’Italia. There is, however, intense competition for hegemony between these forces, and they could easily break apart once votes are counted.