If Raúl Castro stays true to his word, he will no longer be president of Cuba as of February of next year. When he began his current term, he pledged that it would be his last. His relatively brief time in power has been characterized by some of the most sweeping reforms the country has seen since the early years of the revolution. While many focus on the shifts in economic policy, the opening up of Cuban society to degrees of criticism of the government has also been important, though the latter falls short of what most Cubans would wish.

Despite these changes, the Cuban ship of state seems to risk crashing on the rocks of several looming crises. First, the economic collapse of Venezuela and the threat it poses to a post-Soviet Cuban recovery premised on aid from its South American ally. Second, the question of who will succeed Raúl and how smooth such a transition would be. Finally, the election of Donald Trump and the looming threat of a return to Cold War–era policies on Cuba, which could in turn trigger a rollback of some domestic reforms.