The Republican Party has a problem. Donald Trump enjoys a clear lead in the race for the party’s 2016 presidential nomination. With nearly 60 percent (739) of the 1,237 delegates required for the nomination, more than both of his remaining opponents, Ted Cruz of Texas (465) and John Kasich of Ohio (143).

According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Trump is expected to win all or a majority of delegates from Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Indiana, West Virginia, Washington, California, and New Jersey. If he wins significant minorities of delegations from the remaining states (Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana, and New Mexico), he will be in striking distance (1,208 pledged delegates) of the nomination by June 7.

The Republican establishment is haunted by the prospect of the oldest party of industrial capitalism in the United States nominating Trump, with many backing Cruz and encouraging the more “moderate” Kasich to drop out of the race. They hope to prevent Trump’s nomination on the first ballot, provoking an open convention in Cleveland this summer where the party leadership will be able to select the candidate.