Trump Family Prediction Market Conflicts Are a Good Bet

By
David Moscrop

Donald Trump Jr is raising money for Polymarket and lobbying to shield prediction markets from regulation. There should be a thick wall between Trump family business and the presidency. An event contract on whether one exists might be a good investment.

Donald Trump Jr is seen during the UFC Freedom 250 event on the South Lawn at the White House on June 14, 2026.

As the Trump family invests in prediction markets and Trump Jr lobbies to keep them lightly regulated, their harms are are increasingly clear. From distorting public expectations to fostering addiction, they are hard to defend except on mercenary grounds. (Jeff Bottari / Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

There’s nothing to see here, folks. Don’t believe your lying eyes. The eldest son of the president of the United States and his investment firm, 1789 Capital, are raising money in a funding round for Polymarket, the gambling website that styles itself a “prediction market” and which Donald Trump Jr’s firm values at $21 billion. But it’s a nothingburger. Really.

Except, if the relationship seems suspect on its face, that’s because it is. Trump Jr and his company stress that there’s a thick, heavy wall between his political connections — for instance, his father, the president — and his business activities. Never mind that, as the New York Times reports, the Trump family is invested in the “prediction market” business, and Trump Jr is an adviser for Polymarket and competitor Kalshi. Never mind that Trump Jr lobbied Republican state attorneys general to leave these companies alone as they sought regulatory capacity to rein in these gambling giants. So much for the wall between business and politics.

The New Threat on the Block

You can bet on just about anything on definitely-not-gambling sites like Polymarket and Kalshi. On an overcast Saturday morning, September 5, at 10:21 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, the “politics” tab on Polymarket’s site is offering odds on whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity (or CLARITY) Act will be signed into law (15 percent chance), the Federal Reserve rate decision in September (50 percent chance of a 25 basis points increase), and a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027 (57 percent).

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