This month’s local elections in France may not turn out to be such a debacle after all. A far cry from the nationalist and conservative wave that many had feared, left-wing candidates are reasonably well positioned to hold on to power, not only in major urban centers like Paris and Lyon. The first-round vote on March 15 also has the Left holding its own in smaller and midsize cities, and it has a chance to notch up victories in places like Toulouse.

The far right is making inroads, but that’s hardly breaking news. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and its allies are on the path to extend their grip in rural areas and traditional bastions along the Mediterranean coast and in the industrial north. They are even now eyeing larger cities like Nice and giving the Left a run for its money in Marseille, France’s second-largest city. This year’s biggest loser will likely be Emmanuel Macron, whose conservative-centrist bloc is set to continue its gradual disappearance from the political stage two years after its self-inflicted blow in the 2024 snap parliamentary elections.

The relative surprise is the Left. The parties that made up the erstwhile left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which won the largest share of seats in the snap elections in summer 2024, are still providing a credible alternative — almost despite themselves.