When Medicare for All took center stage in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, opponents undercut growing support for the initiative by homing in on how it would raise taxes and eliminate health insurers. Those opponents succeeded: polls at the time showed that while Americans conceptually supported the idea of a government-sponsored system, many didn’t want it to replace private insurance. Surveys showed support for Medicare for All dropped precipitously if the program were to eliminate private insurance.

Soon after, Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren (MA), a Medicare for All proponent, badly stumbled over the tax and private insurance question and lost her front-runner status in the presidential primary polls. With party acolytes still valorizing the Affordable Care Act (ACA) rather than pressing for something better, Democratic voters then nominated avowed Medicare for All opponent Joe Biden, who was elected promising a public health insurance option, and then literally never mentioned it again upon taking office.

To put the enormity of this change in perspective, consider that six years ago, polls showed that when people were told Medicare for All might eliminate private insurance, topline support for the idea typically dropped. One survey showed that just 13 percent of Americans would support Medicare for All if it eliminated private insurance. So these new numbers reflect a potential fifty-point shift on that key question in just six years.