The Infirm Insurrectionist

Already efforts are underway to soften the blow of the conviction or even erase it entirely. In a Congress largely dominated by conservative forces that are agnostic — if not outright sympathetic — toward Bolsonaro, there is a broad constituency in favor of granting amnesty to him as well as those who participated in the insurrection in Brasília on January 8, 2023.

Hugo Motta, president of the Chamber of Deputies, has been actively negotiating a legislative strategy to block a blanket amnesty while exploring a limited reduction of sentences that could benefit the former president. Reportedly under discussion is a plan to lower prison terms for crimes against the democratic order from four to eight years to two to six years and for attempted coups from four to twelve years to two to eight years while counting only the gravest offense when multiple charges apply. The proposal faces resistance from the Lula administration and left-of-center parties, which argue that any form of amnesty is a tacit invitation for future attempts on democracy. The Senate also appears unlikely to support amnesty.

For its part, the Bolsonaro family has sharpened its own discursive counteroffensive. For years, Bolsonaro and his sons — all of whom are engaged in electoral politics — have railed against the democratic institutions of postdictatorial Brazil. While it is true that the Brazilian constitution has not always been effectively implemented, members of the Bolsonaro family have made careers out of flouting its most progressive and innovative elements.

In the days following the sentencing, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son, launched a blistering attack on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes — the minister who oversaw his father’s prosecution — branding him a “terrorist.” The vitriol was immediately paired with an appeal for leniency based on Bolsonaro’s ill health. Within days of the conviction, Bolsonaro was hospitalized with spikes in blood pressure, vomiting, pneumonia, and recurring skin lesions.

These hospitalizations, frequent since he was stabbed during a campaign event in 2018, underscore how Bolsonaro’s body itself has become something of a political prop. To his supporters, he is a persecuted figure hounded even when his physical well-being falters; to his detractors, the timing of his medical episodes tends to conveniently coincide with legal setbacks, suggesting a cynical ploy to delay justice. Either way, his condition has already shaped the conversation about whether he might serve his sentence in prison or under more lenient house arrest. Bolsonaro’s health is thus inseparable from his politics: the man who fashioned himself as a soldier of uncompromising strength now invokes weakness to seek clemency from the very justices he railed against.

Brazilian Democracy vs. Donald Trump

The reverberations of Bolsonaro’s conviction have not been confined to Brasília. His trial has sparked debate over the resilience of democratic institutions and the limits of accountability for right-wing populists the world over. “With all its flaws, Brazilian democracy is healthier today than America’s,” Filipe Campante and Steven Levitsky argued after the verdict. “Rather than undermining Brazil’s effort to defend its democracy, Americans should learn from it,” they concluded.

In line with the discourse of Brazil’s most extreme right-wing elements, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed de Moraes as a “sanctioned human rights abuser.” Echoing earlier comments by Trump, he condemned the Brazilian Supreme Court’s ruling as a “witch hunt” and vowed that the United States would respond accordingly, without specifying how exactly. Brazilian officials are waiting to see if, when, and how the Trump administration will add to its repertoire of retaliatory bullying tactics.

Lula preemptively pushed back in a post-verdict op‑ed in the New York Times, mounting a forceful defense of Brazil’s democracy and judicial system. “When the United States turns its back on a relationship of more than 200 years, such as the one it maintains with Brazil, everyone loses,” Lula insisted, adding that “there are no ideological differences that should prevent two governments from working together in areas where they have common goals.”

One way of understanding Lula’s renewed push to establish a dialogue with Trump is in the context of the United Nations General Assembly to be held later this month in New York City. By custom, the Brazilian president always speaks first, followed by the US chief executive. This is the closest Lula and Trump will have ever been. If Trump still refuses to engage with Lula, at least the Brazilian president will have made his willingness to reach out clear to all.

Looking to 2026

Trump’s attempts to strong-arm Lula’s government have produced clear political dividends for the Brazilian elder statesman. He has seen a bump in the polls as he gears up to seek reelection next year. There is no guarantee, however, that the continued erosion of the bilateral relationship will keep redounding to Lula’s benefit. If their economic pain increases, more Brazilians could very well place the blame at his feet. Lula thus has an incentive to at least establish an open line of communication.

Bolsonaro’s allies are eager to look ahead to next year’s high-stakes presidential race, a process that his trial had effectively put on ice. There are many would-be candidates seeking his blessing, all of whom have effectively promised to be dutiful stewards of Bolsonarismo. Not all are particularly competitive in the polls, but they have, in more or less hushed tones, insisted they would back the former president if he somehow became eligible to run. Now the process of deciding on an alternate standard-bearer for the Right will almost certainly heat up.

Bolsonaro’s conviction, in short, does not lay to rest his political hold on the most feverish contingent of Brazil’s right wing. Indeed, in some ways it raises more questions than it answers. Will Trump escalate his heedless attacks? Will Bolsonaristas in Congress succeed in shifting the narrative in their favor? Will voters continue to oppose amnesty? Will Lula’s approval ratings hold steady or continue to improve? There’s no telling as yet which way the winds are blowing following the historic trial of the former president and his coconspirators. It will be one of the central political questions in the year ahead.