Will François Bayrou’s government see out the year? The French prime minister seemed to doubt as much on July 15, when he used a fire-and-brimstone speech to set out his plans for a stringent austerity budget for 2026.

Speaking this past Tuesday from a rostrum labeled “The moment of truth,” Bayrou called for France’s hung parliament to adopt a package of spending cuts and revenue increases. He even wants to scrap two national holidays in a bid to make the French “work more.” When it comes up for debate this fall, this budget is widely expected to decide the fate of Bayrou’s premiership, as speculation mounts about a possible dissolution of the National Assembly — meaning fresh elections — if it is defeated.

There’s something for every force in the National Assembly to dislike in Bayrou’s budget plan, whether that’s minor encroachments on the Right’s red lines on tax increases, or the far steeper attacks on public services and welfare benefits that the Left has pledged to block. Aiming for €40 billion in net savings for the next fiscal year, the main impetus for Bayrou’s budget framework is to calm concerns in the debt markets and in the European institutions over the French state’s finances.