Regime Change in Iran Will Not End Well

In the long run, the United States will pay for Donald Trump’s hubris in attacking Iran.

President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington, DC, on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (Carlos Barria / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

The other shoe has dropped. Donald Trump has ended the will-he-won’t-he mystery of joining Israel’s war against Iran. Always one to choose the grand gesture, the US president has let loose the dogs of war, with B-2 bombers dropping six bunker-buster bombs on all three known Iranian nuclear sites (Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo). US forces also launched Tomahawk missiles at unspecified Iranian targets.

In a bit of dark irony, the United States conveyed a diplomatic message to Iran saying that its aggression was directed at its nuclear program and not intended to promote regime change. But Trump’s partner in crime, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has very explicitly stated that this was Israel’s goal. Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday, “Why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” And the US attack seriously weakens the clerical regime, which may lead directly to what the United States denies it advocates: regime change.

The Israeli leader further claimed that Israel’s attack aimed to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. That’s only partially true: it is intent on destroying not only the country’s nuclear capability but the entire infrastructure of Iranian society. It has attacked oil depots, the national broadcaster, an airport, and industrial plants. And that’s just in the first phase.

In short, Netanyahu’s goal is nothing short of regime change. In fact, he has called upon the Iranian people to rise up and topple the clerical state.

The phrase “regime change” is a misnomer. The term implies that one regime will fall and be replaced by another more amenable to one’s interests. However, Israel does not want any regime to replace the current one. It wants — as it has achieved in Lebanon and Palestine — a weak, factionalized country beset by sectarian conflict: one that is so weakened it cannot pose a threat to Israel’s goal of regional dominance through force and intimidation.

Israel assassinated much of Iranian armed forces’ senior leadership and its leading nuclear scientists. But it didn’t stop there: Israel also murdered a leader of the negotiating team responsible for the nuclear talks.

After the Israeli attack, Netanyahu argued that the assassination of the Supreme Leader will not escalate hostilities but rather “will end them.” While he may be a sociopath, Netanyahu is no fool. He knows that the killing would sow additional chaos within Iranian leadership. This is precisely what he intends: an Iran that is weakened in precisely the way Israel decimated both Hamas and Hezbollah, with the elimination of their top leadership. The strikes will not end hostilities nor eliminate the nuclear program. On the contrary, they will make the Middle East a far more dangerous place for all its inhabitants — including Israelis — than it already is.

Executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Iran expert Trita Parsi warns that if the Israel-US alliance does topple the Iranian government, it will not lead to the compliant Western-friendly regime it envisions but to a more aggressive, hostile one ruled by the hardest of hard-liners, even more extreme than Ayatollah Khamenei. And if Israel assassinates the Supreme Leader (a goal Netanyahu cherishes), chaos and unrest is likely, further weakening Iran.

Trump boasted that he has “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but he’s done nothing of the sort. While the infrastructure has undoubtedly been severely damaged, Iran knew an attack was imminent and spirited away its 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (some enriched to near-weapons-grade at 60 percent). It may also have other covert nuclear production facilities that were unknown to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western intelligence.

Now, as Parsi told Mehdi Hasan, the country will undoubtedly proceed with producing a nuclear weapon. It will withdraw from the IAEA, thus eliminating any ability to monitor the country’s nuclear program, which will literally go underground. Thus, the very goal of this attack will fail and an Iranian bomb (including the warhead itself and a ballistic missile delivery vehicle) is a virtual certainty: the precise opposite of the US-Israeli goal. Parsi predicts — contrary to Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, which claims Iran can produce a weapon in fifteen days, and the White House, which asserts it was “weeks” from nuclear breakout — it will happen in the next five to ten years.

Rarely discussed in the US media is the danger Jews face here. Much of the world opposes this war. It will lead to a grassroot antiwar movement and an increasingly angry, even potentially violent response. Regardless of whether Jews support or oppose it, they will be blamed because they are seen as Zionists who provide major support for Israel and its crimes. Netanyahu and Trump are putting Jews in the crosshairs.

Some protesters mistake Israel and Zionism for Jews and Judaism. We’ve already seen many outbreaks of antisemitic violence by white supremacists against Jews and Jewish institutions. Now there is yet another motivation for assaulting Jews.

Media outlets are describing Iran’s retaliation against the Israeli attack (and presumed response to Trump’s attack) as “terrorism.” The National Terrorism Advisory Center has issued a “terrorism advisory bulletin” warning of Iranian cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. Here’s another example from CNN: “Iran could resort to ‘asymmetric’ measures — such as terrorism.” This is not “terrorism.” Defending the homeland is precisely that: defense. It is the aggressors who are the terrorists. Israel and the United States have incited a war unprovoked in violation of international law and the UN Charter. That is terrorism.

Israel’s Geostrategic Ambitions, Trump’s Bid for Glory

Trump — a president who ran on an antiwar platform specifically denouncing Middle East “forever wars” — has jumped into what he previously disavowed, pushed to do it by Israel. It is almost a certainty that the United States will pay in the long run for his hubris.

History is replete with empires that pursued grandiose imperial visions. Their overreach inevitably led to unrest and resentment by colonized peoples and then the empire’s ultimate downfall. Israel’s campaign for such supremacy will lead eventually to the same outcome, though antipathy will have to build to such an extent that victims, rival states, or international bodies will rise up against it.

Prior to the US attack, the Democratic congressional caucus was nowhere to be found. Leading figures of the party either supported the operation enthusiastically or remained silent. In fact, they’ve ceded the media space to the MAGA hawks baying for Iranian blood. Congressional leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have mouthed empty platitudes.

A key reason for the silence lies in the Israel lobby. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is leading the charge for war. In fact, it has prepared sample statements for legislators in support of Israeli aggression. The lobby showers hundreds of millions in campaign cash on the party’s candidates in defense of Israel’s bellicose agenda.

The Democrats who have offered any criticism are the usual progressive stalwarts like Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Two Democratic members of Congress have proposed resolutions demanding the president seek congressional approval under the War Powers Act for military action against Iran. That’s it, as far as the Democrats are concerned.

Despite almost universal grassroots opposition to hostilities, European nations have mounted no opposition. On the contrary, Germany’s right-wing chancellor has sung Israel’s praises, saying it is “doing the dirty work for us.” Israel, waging an ongoing genocide in Gaza, and seeking to repeat it in Iran, faces no accountability. The United States is Israel’s accessory to mass murder. If Trump has his way, we will become an actual coconspirator.

Trump’s war constitutes a total renunciation of a 250-year-old tradition of diplomacy. Over that span, with some major exceptions, the United States has negotiated conflicts with its rivals and enemies. It did this with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. It did so in various agreements with the Soviet Union to decrease the nuclear threat. In one of the most critical of these developments, it founded the United Nations after the end of World War II. Its purpose was to resolve future conflicts through negotiation and diplomacy. That is what Trump is discarding in waging war on Iran.