In the Turkish local elections on March 31, 2024, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a historic defeat after over twenty years of uninterrupted dominance. Since its foundation in 2001, the AKP had consistently received the highest percentage of votes in all local and general elections, but its popularity dropped dramatically this election, from 42.56 percent in 2019 to 35.49 percent.

The AKP lost control of eighteen provinces, including major metropoles like Bursa, Balikesir, and Denizli to the Republican People’s Party (CHP), and Şanliurfa to the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP). In Kurdish regions, the AKP’s decline was even more pronounced, resulting in losses to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM, formerly HDP) in Muş and Ağri. Likewise, in the city of Van, the Supreme Electoral Board attempted to instate the AKP’s candidate over DEM’s winner, who had received 55 percent of the votes, but massive social resistance from below led to a reversal of this decision in a couple of days. The ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the junior partner in Erdoğan’s administration, also experienced significant losses, with its vote percentage falling below 5 percent, leading to the loss of control over key provinces such as Manisa.

These unexpected losses came shortly after a significant victory in the general elections in May 2023, when Erdoğan secured 52.18 percent of the votes. During a crucial meeting of the AKP Central Executive Committee after the most recent election, Erdoğan highlighted the urgent need to reverse the downward trend, warning that without action, the party would “keep melting like ice in the sun.”