Yes, we’ve had enough optimistic commentary on near-misses and heroic failures. The result is bad: Jean-Luc Mélenchon ran for president a third time, and again hasn’t made it.

Even with an energizing campaign and a likely sizable tactical vote in his favor — allowing the radical-left candidate to score 22 percent, beating even his best poll scores — Mélenchon couldn’t force his way into the top two. As in 2017, far-right Marine Le Pen (23.4 percent) edged him out, with Emmanuel Macron further in the lead (27.6 percent)

With polling predicting a narrow race in the second round, both Macron and Le Pen will surely make considerable overtures to Mélenchon’s voters. While in 2017 he came fourth, with the conservative François Fillon also in the mix, this time third-placed Mélenchon was the only other candidate to score in double figures. His base — and its propensity to vote — will decisively shape an overall outcome.