Lawmakers in Congress are preparing to consider big cuts to the emergency $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill designed to fight the climate apocalypse and provide a safety net to struggling Americans. At the same time, legislators are nonchalantly advancing a defense spending plan that would put America on track to spend more than twice as much on the Pentagon in the same time period.

The dichotomy spotlights how even after the war in Afghanistan concluded, the military-industrial complex is poised for huge growth in the years to come. Indeed, that is precisely the conclusion of both a July report by one of the world’s largest corporate consultancies, as well as recent military contractor earnings calls that took place after the end of the Afghan war.

While the end of the United States’ longest-running war might appear to be a setback for defense industry investors, military contractors and the business interests that track them expect to see major growth in the sector over the next few years, whether or not the country is actively engaged in formal armed conflicts. Because of rising global instability, fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the ambitions of the US Space Force, and powerful new military technologies, those who profit from global warfare are expecting turbulent — and profitable — years will follow.