Last week, Scott Morrison’s Coalition government announced it will scrap the COVID-19 Disaster Payment. This change will come into effect once states and territories reach a double-dose vaccination rate of 80 percent for those aged sixteen years and older. Introduced in June 2021, the COVID-19 Disaster Payment provides between $450 to $750 per week to workers who lost at least ten hours of work due to a COVID lockdown measure.

This cut in federal support will occur regardless of whether lockdowns are still in place. New South Wales and Victoria, which account for more than 90 percent of the $9.25 billion spent on the scheme, are expected to reach the 80 percent vaccination target by late October and early November respectively. At that stage, those receiving the COVID-19 Disaster Payment will have to apply for the $44 per day JobSeeker poverty payment if they wish to continue receiving government support.

There are 1.5 million people currently receiving the COVID-19 Disaster Payment, and 1 million receiving payments from JobSeeker. Assuming most people who receive the COVID-19 Disaster Payment transition to JobSeeker, this may mean more than 2 million people will be on unemployment benefits. Official statistics underestimate Australia’s unemployment rate, placing it at 4.5 percent. The massive growth in JobSeeker claims that will inevitably follow the winding down of the COVID-19 Disaster Payment will make this already conservative figure appear even more implausible.