Pro-Bolsonaro protests in Brazil this week that some feared would be the first act of a coup turned out to be nothing of the sort. Not only that, but the president’s usual antidemocratic rhetoric could not mask the fact that his intended show of force was a bit of a flop. Yet the concerns over political violence in Brazil’s future may still be well-founded.

The September 7 protests, held on the national holiday to celebrate Brazil’s independence, were the most carefully organized and planned Bolsonarista demonstrations since his electoral victory in 2018. Bolsonaro had only a week prior declared that “the Brazilian people will never have as big an opportunity as on September 7.”

But Bolsonaro is increasingly encircled. The economy is in bad shape, and much of the country’s political and economic elite have turned against him. Popular living standards are being squeezed as food and fuel inflation bite amid high unemployment; his poll numbers, in turn, have plummeted. Bolsonaro, his family, and his entourage are also the subject of numerous judicial probes, some of them criminal.