The Cuban political system has now outlasted the Soviet Union by thirty years, defying predictions of collapse in the 1990s. But the long-anticipated retirement of Raúl Castro means that the revolutionary generation no longer holds sway in Havana. Recent protests have once again raised questions about the political future of Cuba in a world that remains largely inhospitable. To grasp where Cuba might be going next, we need to look at the country’s history since the revolution of 1959 and consider how the Cuban system and its leaders responded to previous challenges that might have proven fatal.

Antoni Kapcia is the author of several books on Cuban history, including A Short History of Revolutionary Cuba and Leadership in the Cuban Revolution.

This is an edited transcript from an episode of Jacobin Radio’s Long Reads podcast. You can listen to the episode here.