It’s unclear how many Canadians realize it, but, barring something completely unanticipated, an election call is widely expected as early as this Sunday, meaning that Canadians will almost certainly elect a new parliament sometime next month. Officially, prime minister Justin Trudeau can be expected to cite unspecified dysfunction and the need for a working majority as his reasons for going to the polls. Unofficially, this bunk rationale will be a lazy cover for what all but the most credulous Liberal partisans already understand: that the governing party sees the current moment as its best available opportunity for electoral gain and has decided to roll the dice.

Over the past week, some pundits have begun to wonder about the wisdom of such a move, an analysis that, for what it’s worth, doesn’t seem entirely misplaced. Among other things, Canada’s chief public health officer has issued warnings about the possibility of a new, Delta variant–driven wave of COVID cases. According to recent polling, a solid majority of Canadians seem hostile or at least unenthusiastic about the possibility of an election — an environment that hardly looks ripe for a big swing to the Liberals.

A week or two into the campaign, of course, it may or may not matter. What can safely be said is that the state of play in Canadian politics makes the election’s outcome anything but a foregone conclusion. Though paltry in length compared with their American equivalents, federal elections in Canada can be prone to tremendous volatility, and the current landscape — though superficially familiar — looks somewhat different from any in recent memory.