For weeks, it has been clear that Labour would have a bad night in this week’s election. The only question was how bad. As we awoke yesterday to disastrous losses in local elections, historic defeat in Hartlepool, and a likely mayoral bloodbath to come, the answer is very bad indeed.

The result should not be a surprise. Polls have been on the slide for months, but behind them, things were even worse. Throughout this election cycle, Labour activists across the country were reporting the same thing: a lack of bodies on the ground. Starmer’s team will cite COVID as a reason, but it doesn’t reflect reality — people could have campaigned in recent weeks if they wanted to, but too many didn’t. The party entered the biggest set of elections in over a hundred years with a base that wasn’t motivated or energized.

It would be easy to blame this on a failure of messaging. Starmer’s focus group approach has worn thin incredibly quickly — leaving Labour looking vacuous, corporate, and insincere. The party has steadfastly refused to outline any policy positions, made supportive noises about even the worst Tory mismanagement during the COVID pandemic, and failed to acknowledge at all the deep frustration felt by millions of people facing the brunt of an economic crisis.