On May 22, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) decisively lost the by-election in the Upper Hunter constituency of New South Wales (NSW). Following on the heels of the 2019 federal and NSW elections, it’s the third time in two years that the ALP has lost an election that it expected to win.

Labor insiders and commentators were keen for us to learn all the wrong lessons from the defeat. Pundits were soon speculating about potential successors to NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay, as if the ALP’s problem could be reduced to one of bad leadership. Joel Fitzgibbon, a rogue right-wing Labor backbencher, was on hand with a predictable sound bite, claiming that Labor must go further in its embrace of coal if it wants to be successful.

But Labor did embrace coal — and it didn’t win votes in return. The lesson should be clear: If the ALP cannot win a by-election by supporting coal in the area that employs the highest proportion of coal miners in NSW, repeating the trick won’t be successful anywhere else. The party needs to find a new path.