The Democratic Party of today is a different beast from the one under Obama. While the last Democratic president did everything he could to triangulate on immigration, from deporting record numbers of people to militarizing the border, electoral considerations, the rise of Donald Trump, and an increasingly powerful activist movement have led the party to place immigrants’ rights at the center of their political vision. Being “soft” on immigration is no longer a liability for a Democrat, but being “tough” on the issue may well be.

Which is why Joe Biden may well find it difficult to find favor among Democrats once he launches his campaign.

Biden doesn’t have a uniformly harsh record on immigration issues. Rather, his forty-year-long political career has seen him shift wildly with the times, extending an outstretched hand to immigrants one moment and closing his fist the next. As with many issues, in times of pressure or right-wing ascendence, Biden has opted to make common cause with conservative efforts to stoke fears around immigration and seek continuity instead of a break with consensus — an approach that now puts him out of step with not just the Democratic Party, but, increasingly, the US public, too.