The Macronites’ Stubborn Neoliberal Offensive

On July 15, no doubt hoping to take advantage of summertime political apathy, Bayrou presented his budget plan for the coming years at a press conference with apocalyptic overtones. According to him, France is “in a situation of extreme danger” due to its excessive debt (114 percent of GDP) and its deficit (5.4 percent of GDP).

Bayrou, a member of the Macronite coalition, thus called for an extra €43.8 billion in savings by 2026. These savings would, of course, be made at the expense of the working class: yet another reform of unemployment insurance; the non-replacement of one in three civil servants; a freeze on pensions, social benefits, and local authority budgets; the suppression of certain drugs from the list of reimbursable medicines; new privatizations, etc.

To add insult to injury, Bayrou promised the elimination of two public holidays without compensation — equivalent to making every worker work an extra quarter of a year for free during their lives. Added to this was the fact that the army’s budget was set to increase further by 2030 (€64 billion compared to €32 billion in 2017), while the budget for the ecological transition, hospitals, and education is stagnating well below needed levels.

Bayrou was thus stubbornly pursuing the policy of his predecessors throughout the Macron era: a “supply-side policy” that consists of dispossessing the poor to enrich the wealthy. There is, therefore, no question of reinstating the wealth tax (€4.5 billion in lost revenue per year), abolishing the flat tax on capital income (€9 billion a year), or reconsidering the public aid that is given to companies without any social or ecological compensation (€211 billion). Yet it is the policies of lowering taxes on businesses and the wealthiest households that have widened the public deficit and led to the current debt situation. Since coming to power in 2017, Macron has created some €1 trillion in debt. Meanwhile, the wealth of France’s five hundred richest people has doubled.

The outgoing prime minister, who has supported all the successive governments of the Macron era, is thus one of those responsible for this inflation of public debt, which he sought to make the less well-off to pay for. No wonder, then, that Bayrou’s plan sparked controversy. Macron’s refusal to respect the results of the July 2024 parliamentary elections, won by the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) coalition, and his stubbornness in appointing prime ministers from the Right and center right had already led to an unprecedented political and institutional crisis. The looming economic and social crisis is likely to be explosive.

“Let’s Block Everything”

Already this summer, a petition against the Duplomb Law on agriculture, which notably sought to authorize the use of acetamiprid (a toxic pesticide), garnered more than two million signatures. It was a record for this type of democratic instrument, already indicating a tense social climate.

Throughout the summer, the mainstream media described the popular mobilization planned for September 10 as a movement that was sometimes “nebulous” and “confusing,” sometimes “conspiracy-theorist” or “far-right,” and even “orchestrated by Russia.” It is true that the slogan “Let’s Block Everything” appears to be a multifaceted call taken up by all sides on social media.

The initiators of the call are enigmatic: it was initially launched by “Les essentiels,” a sovereigntist group that appeared in mid-May on social media, particularly TikTok. Initially marginal, their audience exploded in July following Bayrou’s announcements. On their website, Les essentiels claims to have no spokespeople and details their proposals in a plan called “Sovereign France”: leaving the European Union, reducing employer “charges,” creating a national loan to buy back public debt, and relocating jobs by taxing imports. They denounce the media, accusing them of aligning themselves with the interests of the powerful, and claim that France is in the hands of secret networks (particularly Freemasonry) — which gives them a conspiratorial tone. In addition to proposing a ban on “occult affiliations” for anyone with influence and decision-making power, they are calling for the dissolution of political parties, which they accuse of stifling democracy.

But September 10 then became the focal point for all manner of protests; the snowball effect of social media diluted the fascist and conspiracy-theorist rhetoric, and social demands took precedence over everything else. On the website “Indignons-nous, bloquons tout” (Let’s get angry, let’s block everything), which brings together most of the initiatives, the only focus is opposing the Bayrou plan and bringing down the government. What we are seeing emerge is a movement without a single banner, which is being built outside the usual organizations and is growing week by week, through local general assemblies, local “indignons-nous” Telegram channels, various expressions on social media, working groups, and homemade flyers.

Each local group is the scene of heated debates between former gilets jaunes, right-wing and left-wing voters, left-wing activists, trade unionists, and ordinary citizens with no party affiliation. Students, employees from different sectors, unemployed people, and retirees discuss fairer taxation and ways to block everything (refusing to buy things, emptying their bank accounts, blocking roads or large companies, organizing free-toll operations on highways, demonstrating, striking, occupying squares or roundabouts, etc.).

While the origins of the movement — which began on social media in connection with issues of tax justice and is nonpartisan — may be reminiscent of the gilets jaunes, there is one major difference: this time, most left-wing organizations decided to join its ranks from the outset. Among political parties, France Insoumise, followed by the Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste, Révolution Permanente, the Greens, the Communists, and even the Parti Socialiste, announced that they would support or serve the movement, while insisting on the importance of its independence and autonomy.

Some of the unions, pushed by their members, then decided to join the movement: the Confédération Générale du Travail (CGT) called for a strike on September 10, while warning against attempts by the far right to infiltrate the movement, as did Solidaires and several local unions. The Confédération Française Démocratique du Travail (CFDT) and Force Ouvrière federations, which are more right-wing, are keeping their distance from the September 10 strike, but the interunion coalition has called for mobilization on September 18. Many unions and youth organizations have also called for mobilization on September 10, as have civil society associations such as ATTAC, feminist organizations such as the #NousToutes movement, and climate and environmental groups such as Earth Uprisings.

Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, for its part, has decided not to join the mobilization and has stated that it “has no intention of organizing demonstrations.” This does not mean that there will be no far-right activists or voters in the movement, as was the case at the beginning of the Yellow Vests movement. Macron’s supporters and the right wing will, of course, stay away from the movement.

Goodbye to Bayrou — and Macron?

Faced with the prospect of this explosive mobilization and knowing that he was likely to be censured by parliament when his budget bill was discussed in September, Bayrou decided to call for a vote of confidence in the government. All the left-wing parties (including the Parti Socialiste), as well as the Rassemblement National (after refusing to censure the government eight times in two years), immediately announced that they would not vote confidence in Bayrou.

Several scenarios are possible now that Bayrou has fallen. The first is that Macron will attempt to form a new government. Having refused for over a year to appoint a prime minister from the NFP, despite its electoral victory, it is unlikely that he will do so now. He could decide to appoint, for the third time since the July 2024 parliamentary elections, a prime minister from the centrist-to-right-wing presidential camp (“le socle commun”) in order to pursue his Macronist agenda — for example, the current interior minister, Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains), or his predecessor Gérald Darmanin (from pro-Macron party Renaissance). But since the same causes produce the same effects, a new government of this type would have great difficulty passing a budget and governing, and the regime crisis would only be extended.

Another possible variation on this first scenario would be to attempt to form a coalition government ranging from the right-wing Républicains to the Parti Socialiste — by making concessions, for example, on the two public holidays or on the nonrenewal of civil servants’ contracts. Bayrou’s apparent political suicide may in fact conceal a political tactic: that of provoking a crisis on the financial markets to put pressure on the Parti Socialiste by calling on them to act “responsibly.”

But the current climate of social unrest and the local elections coming up in May 2026 could dissuade the Parti Socialiste — for once — from betraying the Left and the program on which it was elected. Macron could also appoint a prime minister from the Rassemblement National (which was the leading political party in the last elections), but the latter is demanding snap elections.

This is the second possible scenario: a new dissolution of parliament, for the second time since the beginning of Macron’s second term in 2022. In addition to the Rassemblement National, France Insoumise is also calling for a dissolution. Macron has announced several times in recent weeks that he would not dissolve the National Assembly if the government were overthrown, but he is not in the habit of keeping his word. Especially since a return to the polls would have the advantage of absorbing the country’s militant forces and sapping the momentum of the “block everything” movement.

The third scenario would be for Macron himself to resign. Given that ultimately he is primarily responsible for the crisis of government that France is going through, this would be the most dignified outcome from a democratic point of view. Furthermore, a recent poll shows that 67 percent of French people want him to resign. But Macron seems too attached to his throne to go that far. France Insoumise has already announced that it will table a motion of impeachment for the second time, but this procedure is subject to very strict rules and is unlikely to succeed. It has never happened in the history of the Fifth Republic, founded in 1958.

While the first scenario, with the appointment of a new government, would force us to circle the Macronite merry-go-round once more, dissolution or impeachment would mean a return to the polls. In this case, a union of the Left based on a break with the current system of production and consumption will be essential. The recent crushing defeat of Kamala Harris showed once again that when the Left fails to embrace its left-wing economic and social agenda, and continues to arm a genocidal regime in Israel, the far right wins.

However, France’s left is currently divided, and some — particularly within the Parti Socialiste — hope to build a new electoral coalition without France Insoumise, which would guarantee electoral defeat.

The outcome of the political crisis and the aftermath of Bayrou’s fall will depend on the strength of the social movement that will launch on September 10. The two are linked. The question is whether Bayrou’s resignation will defuse the popular protest or, on the contrary, act as a catalyst. If the people take to the streets, if the unions join the movement, and if a united, radical left, linked to a strong popular mobilization, emerges, it is possible to defeat both Macronism and the far right.

It feels like the end of an era — yet for now, nothing is certain.