Kashmir Votes to Challenge Modi’s Grip
We report from Kashmir’s first vote since the 2019 crackdown. Residents discuss why economic difficulties and support for autonomy drove a repudiation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Supporters of the National Conference (JKNC) party shout slogans as they celebrate in Srinagar, the capital of India-Kashmir. (Credit Sajad Hameed / Jacobin)
Previously arrested several times for “anti-India” activities, twenty-three-year-old Ikhlas Amin Bhat, a resident of Anantnag, campaigned for an independent candidate in Kashmir’s first legislative assembly election in ten years. “My family has always boycotted polls, but this time, we showed up, driven by the hope for real change in the region. We have pinned our faith on Indian democracy,” he said, sharing photos from the campaign trail.
He was among the many voters and campaigns that dealt a blow to Delhi through the election of a national assembly with a near majority for the center-left and regionalist Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC).
Ikhlas’s participation in these elections is symbolic of a broader shift in Kashmiri political engagement. The late 1980s witnessed the rise of an armed insurgency in Kashmir, with thousands of young Kashmiris taking up arms against Indian rule. This insurgency sparked decades of repression, during which human rights violations became the norm.
Things only got worse after the election of Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2019, the Indian government unilaterally abrogated constitutional safeguards for Jammu and Kashmir, revoking the region’s limited autonomy (Article 370 of India’s Constitution), provoking widespread outrage. This drastic action was followed by a severe crackdown: thousands of additional troops were deployed; hundreds of local politicians, lawyers, traders, and journalists were imprisoned; and the region was subjected to the longest internet blackout ever recorded, lasting over eighteen months.
Human Rights Watch, in reference to the post-abrogation situation in Jammu and Kashmir, stated that Indian authorities have been “restricting free expression, peaceful assembly, and other basic rights” following the revocation of the region’s special autonomous status. In a 2022 statement, the organization noted, “The government’s repressive policies and failure to investigate and prosecute alleged security force abuses have increased insecurity among Kashmiris.”
What’s Rightfully Ours
These human rights challenges have framed the backdrop of the 2024 elections, marking the first time in years that Kashmiris have had the opportunity to express their grievances and aspirations through the ballot.
The 2014 elections resulted in a coalition government that collapsed in June 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support. For the past five years, the region has been under direct federal rule, stripped of local representation. Following the directives of India’s Supreme Court, the 2024 assembly elections mark the first opportunity for the people to reclaim their voice and express their grievances since the abrogation of its special status.
“We voted with the hope of ushering in real change and a brighter future,” Ikhlas told Jacobin. “Despite a history of violence and boycotts due to distrust in the electoral process, this year’s elections saw a high voter turnout — exceeding 60 percent. Many residents, including those in Anantnag, a town once known for its boycotts and separatist protests, expressed a renewed belief in electoral politics.”
The substantial voter turnout exceeding 60 percent signifies not only a shift in political engagement but also a collective yearning for stability and local representation. Voter engagement in areas like Anantnag, which have historically boycotted elections, could either lead to reconciliation or further deepen existing divides.
Modi, India’s prime minister, hailed the voter turnout as a sign of progress, stating, “For the first time, voting was held without the fear of terrorism. The huge participation is proof of Naya [New] Kashmir.” The BJP credits this enthusiasm to improved security and its policies, while many Kashmiris simply see it as an opportunity to finally be heard.
For Vanessa Chishti, a professor at O. P. Jindal Global University in India, voter participation in the elections reflects a complex interplay of sociopolitical dynamics. “In the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370, the Modi government has implemented a series of policies aimed at consolidating control over the region, often stifling dissent and marginalizing local voices. The electoral process, therefore, represents a critical avenue through which the people of Kashmir seek to reclaim their agency and make their voices heard,” she remarked.
“This election holds particular significance for us because it symbolizes our fight to reclaim our special status and what we believe is rightfully ours,” said Khurshid, an unemployed postgraduate voter from north Kashmir’s Baramulla district, reflecting the sentiments of many Kashmiris who feel disenfranchised.
The Election Results
Shopian, one of the four districts down in the south of the Kashmir valley, formerly a hotbed of militancy, saw turnout increase 7 points, to 57 percent, compared to 2014. A significant number of people, primarily women, came out to express their concerns about the government’s reduced rice allotment, a policy change that has been in effect since January 2023.
“Rice is the staple food of Kashmir, and the government previously provided up to fifteen kilograms per person each month. However, under the Indian government, this allotment has been reduced to just five kilograms. We are suffering due to the scarce rice supply. The insufficient allotment forces locals to purchase rice at exorbitant prices. This has severely impacted us economically, with most of our earnings now going toward buying food,” said Zaina Begum, a local resident.
The austerity has been compounded by a poor underlying economy. A recent employment report tells much of the story: educated youth unemployment stood at 21.8 percent in 2005, while in 2022, the rate has grown to 34.8 percent.
It’s no surprise that for many Kashmiris economic struggles are a driving force behind their participation in the elections. While the issues that resonate with the public range from economic to young undertrials imprisoned for several years and fundamental governance concerns, the BJP centred its electoral campaign on the “peace” it claims to have restored in Kashmir since 2019. The party fielded nineteen candidates for the assembly segments in the valley; however, eighteen of them lost their deposits, receiving less than one-sixth of the total votes cast in their respective segments.
The JKNC, one of the most vocal regional opponents of the August 5, 2019, decision, has made a remarkable comeback by winning forty-two out of ninety seats — its best performance in nearly three decades. In its manifesto, the party not only criticized the abrogation of the region’s special status but also promised to advocate for its restoration and to call for the revocation of several draconian laws. The BJP failed to win any seats in the Kashmir division, while in the predominately Hindu Jammu region it won twenty-nine seats.
Tanvir Sadiq, a senior leader of JKNC who won the elections in Srinagar’s Zadibal assembly seat, stated that their party’s victory, which campaigned on a manifesto denouncing the BJP’s actions, represents a clear rejection of the government’s narrative. “The people of Kashmir have realized that to speak their heart out through the ballot is much better. The last five years have been damaging and this vote is a vent out for Kashmiris who have felt unheard since the abrogation of Article 370,” said Sadiq.
A Pivotal Moment
Sadiq noted the enthusiastic participation of young voters, signaling a shift in Kashmir’s youth political engagement. As Sadiq articulates, the younger generation has come to understand that voicing opinions on social media alone is insufficient; real change demands tangible action.
This sentiment is echoed by Chishti. “People have pursued all other avenues, including militancy and protests,” she explains. “There is fatigue of decades, and there has been a lot of bloodshed and loss. Kashmir is now seeking a constructive avenue for change, and the electoral process represents that hope. From political rights to governance challenges, the public, through their vote, is calling for immediate redressal of a myriad of concerns that have long been neglected.”
One of the most significant developments in this electoral cycle was the active participation of various separatist leaders and factions, historically advocating for either independence from India or a merger with Pakistan. Notably, Jamaat-e-Islami, one of the most hard-line political groups in the valley that had previously called for a boycott of the polls, fielded several candidates.
The BJP has characterized the involvement of separatist leaders in the electoral process as a “remarkable” achievement. Senior BJP leader Ram Madhav commented, “The participation of the Jamaat, which has historically boycotted elections, alongside a significant number of independent candidates — many of whom are well-known leaders — demonstrates that the people of this troubled region are eager to break free from the confines of outdated political narratives.”
Chishti asserts that the BJP is poised to capitalize on the participation of separatist forces in the electoral process, leveraging this development for both domestic and international narratives. “Right-wing Hindu nationalist parties have historically exploited the Kashmir issue to further their agenda, framing it as a cornerstone of national identity since independence. The recent involvement of separatist groups marks a significant shift, and the BJP will undoubtedly portray it as a validation of its policies.”
She suggests that the 2024 assembly elections in Kashmir signal a pivotal moment for the region, marked by significant voter engagement and the unprecedented participation of separatist factions. As the people of Kashmir strive to reclaim their agency through the electoral process, the implications of this shift extend beyond the immediate political landscape.
The path forward is challenging, as a centrally appointed governor will retain significant power, with the police and several other departments remaining outside the control of the local government. “Most people, including I, voted in protest. If the newly elected representatives fail to address pressing concerns like unemployment and civil liberties, disillusionment could once again lead Kashmir toward unrest,” said Omana Muzaffar, twenty-one, while watching a victory procession for the National Conference.