In the late 1990s, as AFL-CIO president John Sweeney led the federation’s ultimately failed program to boost union organizing, the phrase “organize or die” was standard rhetoric in labor leader speeches and commentary. Unions did not organize at scale, however, losing 1.9 million members since 2000, with union density (the percentage of all workers represented by unions) declining from 13.5 percent of the workforce to 10 percent in 2023.

Yet instead of dying a slow death, organized labor’s finances have actually flourished. Labor’s net assets (assets minus debt) grew from $11 billion in 2000 to $35 billion in 2023.

How did organized labor escape the “organize or die” theory of decline? Two key pillars have allowed unions to remain viable despite a steady decline in membership. But a second Donald Trump presidency could unravel both. For some sense of what that might look like, we can examine a previous right-wing administration that was a bloodbath for the labor movement: Ronald Reagan’s first term as president.