In a parliamentary byelection on June 19, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) held on to a seat in Manitoba. The outcome of the race in Portage-Lisgar was never in doubt. The CPC routinely wins it, by a lot. But this time, far-right People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier was running, challenging his former party, under whose banner he’d served as a member of Parliament and a Cabinet minister. He got demolished, winning just 17.2 percent compared to the Conservative Party’s 64.9 percent — a twelve-point improvement on their 2021 win.

Both the Left and the mainstream right celebrated Bernier and the PPC’s defeat. But the episode — and the matter of a fractured right — is more complicated than it seems.

Reflecting on the race, journalist Sean Speer challenged the assumption “that right-wing fragmentation is inherently bad and the PPC’s optimal vote share is 0 percent” and argued “recent provincial experiences in Alberta and Ontario suggest that the optimal number may actually be higher than 0 percent.” His central thesis is “[p]olitical parties to the right of the mainstream conservative party may be a helpful safety valve for fringe ideas and voices. They can enable mainstream parties to position themselves as balanced and moderate and ultimately to govern more effectively.”