Since Keir Starmer was elected party leader in April 2020, most of the Parliamentary Labour Party have been at pains to remind the wider membership that, above all else, he is a bona fide election winner. Starmer is, his supporters insist, a nailed-on certainty to reclaim 10 Downing Street for Labour after over a decade in opposition. After he was first elected leader, former Blairite luminaries immediately went public with their congratulations. Tony Blair himself tweeted his praise via his charitable foundation, saying that Starmer had taken on “the responsibility of providing a coherent and effective opposition” and looked forward to him transforming Labour into a “serious and effective candidate for government.”

Yet just over two years into his leadership, there are strong indications that the picture is not all rosy. In public, Blair and his longtime aide Peter Mandelson remain supportive of Starmer and his purge of the Left of his party. However, behind the scenes, Starmer appears to have lost the support of the Blairites. In private, doubts have been growing for some time about Starmer’s much heralded electability. Blair had already said as much out loud in May 2021, after Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election, a seat which Labour held twice under Jeremy Corbyn. Writing in the New Statesman, Blair said Starmer was “sensible but not radical.”

Blair’s New Statesman article has been, until now, the clearest sign yet that Blair et al. no longer believe that Starmer has the magic touch. That is until a few weeks ago, when the Britain Project was created. Its exact purpose remains unclear, except that it seeks a more centrist alternative to Starmer’s Labour.