The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) temporarily increased the duration, coverage, and generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits until September 6 of this year. Between June 12 and July 10, all twenty-five GOP-led states prematurely eliminated these benefit increases for their residents and the Biden administration declined to use its statutory authority to prevent these cuts.

Early data from the Census Household Pulse Survey show that these cuts have been effective at removing people from the unemployment rolls but not successful at increasing employment. If this data is accurate then it suggests that, when these same cuts hit the more populous other half of states on September 6, they will do enormous damage to tens of millions of Americans.

Following the approach of Arin Dube, I analyzed the last six pulse survey files, which cover April 14 through July 5. I start my analysis by dividing the states into three groups. The first group — Alaska, Mississippi, Missouri, Iowa, Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming — cut UI benefits in early June. The second group — Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, Maryland, Tennessee, and Arizona — cut UI benefits in late June and early July. The third group consists of all of the remaining states, which have not cut UI benefits but will see those benefits cut on September 6 unless Congress acts.