What to make of this Democratic primary for New York City mayor? For the Left, it’s been a challenging moment, and there’s a decent chance the next mayor will be someone squarely to the right of Bill de Blasio, a milquetoast progressive who nevertheless stood out in the city’s history of neoliberal mayors.

Right now, there are four Democrats who have a credible shot at winning Tuesday. They are Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, Andrew Yang, and Maya Wiley. For months, Yang, the former presidential candidate, was the leader in the polls, but he slipped in the last month as negative media coverage piled up and voters began to seek out other options. In his presidential run, Yang popularized the idea of universal basic income and adopted some left positions, but in his mayoral campaign he rebranded, courting conservative Orthodox Jews and outer-borough white ethnics and calling for a policy of flooding the subways with police.

Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, would be the city’s second black mayor. He has overtaken Yang in the polls, outflanking him as a tough-on-crime candidate while forging a coalition of real estate and labor interests, as well as moderate white and black voters. Adams is deeply skeptical of strong tenant laws and supports charter schools. On some issues he stands to the right of Yang, and he has far deeper ties to Democratic institutions. He would be an extremely difficult mayor for the Left to organize against.