Failed Beer Hall Putsch reenactments aside, Donald Trump will be leaving the White House on January 20, if not sooner. The focus now shifts to the post-Trump world: What can we expect from the incoming Biden administration?

The short answer is “not much.” While lacking Trump’s predilection for outright nepotism and sycophancy, Joe Biden clearly values personal loyalty and has made his staffing choices accordingly. His transition team and his cabinet picks are full of people who have followed him for years. Many are ascending a few rungs on the career ladder they began climbing during the Obama administration. Others, like proposed agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack, are literally taking the same job they had under Barack Obama.

Personal leadership style aside, the clear message is that the Democratic Party establishment is back in charge. Despite Biden winning election just months after George Floyd’s murder at the hands of Minneapolis police sparked the largest protest movement in US history, despite the fact that Bernie Sanders’s insurgent candidacy showed that there was a vibrant constituency on the party’s left flank, and despite the fact that unions and other progressive groups gave him the margin of victory in key swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, Biden and his team have shown nothing but contempt toward progressives and the Left. Instead, they have doubled down on bland centrism. With the possible exception of Green New Deal–supporting Deb Haaland at the Department of the Interior, every cabinet pick has been a safe, establishment choice.