How Sean McElwee’s “Normie-Progressive Theory of Change” Doomed Samelys López
The story of how one extremely wrong Data for Progress poll kneecapped a socialist congressional candidate in the Bronx.

Samelys López, a socialist candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary in New York’s 15th Congressional District.
Three weeks before the Democratic primary in New York’s 15th Congressional District in the Bronx, things were going pretty well for socialist candidate Samelys López. Perhaps surprisingly well: the newcomer, endorsed by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), had been gaining traction in an extremely crowded race, with twelve contenders all vying for the same job.
This was a once-in-a-generation opportunity in New York politics — an open seat. The well-liked progressive incumbent, José Serrano, was retiring after thirty years in office, spurring a free-for-all of mostly career politicians with name recognition aiming to replace him. For several of them, this was a chance to escape the term limits of their current jobs and step into a much more powerful role that they could potentially hold for decades.
The race was a who’s who of Bronx politics: City Council member Ritchie Torres (currently term-limited), former speaker of the City Council Melissa Mark-Viverito (term-limited when she left office in 2017), City Council member Ydanis Rodríguez (term-limited and, notably, representing a district in upper Manhattan, not the Bronx), state assemblyman Michael Blake (also a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee), and, last but not least, former state senator and current City Council member Rubén Díaz Sr, a controversial longtime figure in New York politics whose son, Rubén Díaz Jr, currently serves as the Bronx borough president.