Today Canadians will cast ballots in their first federal election since Justin Trudeau’s Liberals swept to power on a wave of clickbait-driven enthusiasm four years ago — and, whatever the final result turns out to be, there can be little doubt that the Trudeaumania of 2015 has finally subsided.

What initially began as a sleepy affair, with the Liberals and Tories trading superficial barbs and banalities, has since become wildly unpredictable — due almost entirely to a sudden surge in momentum for Jagmeet Singh and the social-democratic NDP. The precise causes of this shift, the predictable hot takes notwithstanding, are likely a mixture of recent events and more long-term developments.

In 2015, the Liberals gained millions of votes on the basis of Trudeau’s personal popularity and a platform many mistakenly believed was a blueprint for transformative change. Predictably enough, Trudeau soon frustrated these hopes with a run of broken promises and a refusal to implement many parts of the ultimately modest agenda he had once campaigned on.