As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrates seventy years of rule this week, protests in the semiautonomous city of Hong Kong continue to intensify. On Tuesday, Hong Kong police shot a teenage protester in the chest with a live round, the first such incident since protests exploded in June. Originally directed at a single anti–civil liberties bill, the demonstrations have since morphed into a broader anti-establishment movement, with many in Hong Kong seeing it as a last-ditch effort to prevent the steady erosion of political freedom in this special administrative region of China.

The Hong Kong authorities’ response — heavily shaped by the Chinese government — should be seen as a warning to democratic forces in neighboring countries, particularly Taiwan, whose citizens will go to the polls in January with the choice between accommodation or resistance to further CCP influence. But the movement also shows that powerful, repressive governments can be forced to walk back draconian measures in the face of popular mobilization.