As October 31 approaches, yet another deadline for Britain’s departure from the European Union is upon us. Yet this time around, it’s quite possible that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will end up losing his legal and diplomatic battles yet winning the electoral war. If Johnson does have ask for another extension to Article 50, and thus delay Brexit, the political consequences will hinge on one crucial factor. Are hard-line Eurosceptics going to hold Johnson responsible for not keeping his promise to “get Brexit done” by the end of October? Or will they accept Johnson’s claim that a shabby alliance of judges, MPs, and EU officials have prevented him from implementing “the will of the people”?

In the first scenario, a snap election could work out very badly for Johnson, as he leaks votes to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. If the second plays out, he can still hope to win a majority on a hard-right platform, holding out the prospect of a no-deal exit without actually having to follow through on it before he secures a fresh mandate. If the opposition vote is divided between several parties, Johnson won’t have to match — let alone surpass — Theresa May’s performance in 2017.

The course of British politics over the next few weeks and months is murky and unpredictable. But the fact that Johnson is even in a place where his strategy could seem viable owes a great deal to the choices made by Britain’s liberal center since 2017.