Over the course of four days and three votes, Boris Johnson and the Conservatives saw their promise that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union by Halloween collapse, and his deal repeatedly trounced by furious MPs. After an emergency session in Parliament on Saturday to attempt to hurriedly pass the deal, an amendment by a Conservative MP to allow a longer period of scrutiny passed, forcing the prime minister to send a letter to Brussels requesting an extension to the Brexit withdrawal date. Theatrics ensued: Johnson refused to sign it, briefing to a handful of gullible journalists that the letter was photocopied. This was pure tantrum for the optics — lawyers confirmed the lack of a handwritten signature meant nothing legally, and the claim that it was a photocopy was a simple lie, designed to show a lack of respect and willful obstreperousness.

On Tuesday, two votes in quick succession did for the government’s plans to rush the deal through Parliament by Thursday: the first passed the bill onto the next stage of scrutiny, but the crucial vote came next, rejecting the government’s timetable — meaning it was nigh on impossible to push the deal through Parliament by the deadline. Johnson now had to concede an extension was inevitable and confirmed to MPs that he was pausing the legislation to ratify the deal until the EU had responded confirming it would grant an extension. Number 10 had threatened to call an election if the timetable was felled, and Labour had previously stated that once a no-deal Brexit was averted, they would happily fight the Conservatives at the polls. All eyes are now on the EU leaders: if they grant an extension through January 31, 2020, a pre-Christmas election is likely. If later, an early spring election is on the cards.

Whatever the outcome, the campaign styles and focuses are already emerging. In terms of leadership, the Conservatives under Johnson’s tenure have been haphazard and short-termist. Each vote is treated as a self-contained war, with casualties always falling on the Conservative side. Johnson has won few votes, two in total, and lost every important battle in the House of Commons. One of the most foolish moves taken was to expel twenty-one Tory MPs who rebelled against the government, leaving a sizable number of politicians adrift and no longer beholden to the party’s disciplinary mechanisms. What was described as a bold and decisive action by Johnson turned out to be a major error: many of them subsequently voted against the government, and were freed to attack the party in the media and speak their mind more openly.