I think we can all agree that our country would be much better off if Bernie Sanders were competing for the Democratic nomination against Gloria La Riva, Cornel West, or (why not?) Liza Featherstone. If that were the choice facing socialists in our fight to defeat Donald Trump, then it would make perfect sense for us to stand on the sidelines and watch these primaries play out. We could have a sensible debate over whether to break up the banks or simply nationalize them, for example, with full confidence that either outcome would pose a serious and enduring threat to capital.

And yet here we are, nearly a year away from the primary, and it already seems quite clear that Sanders will not be running against La Riva, Featherstone, or West. It also seems unlikely that he’ll be running against Warren, Buttigieg, or Beto — three opponents who remain mired in the single-digits even as they run as self-proclaimed capitalists.

Instead — if preference polling, favorability polling, first-day fundraising totals, and endorsements are any indication — Sanders’ primary opponent for the Democratic nomination will almost certainly be Joe Biden. He is winning by all of these measures, and has been for several months now, and usually by a significant margin. Sanders has managed to pass him in preference polling a few times, has annihilated him in various straw polls of uncertain legitimacy, and has built a sizable lead in overall fundraising — but none of this is enough to make him the frontrunner. And the rest of the field, meanwhile, is trailing far behind.