In Budapest, the results of the recent national elections came as a surprise to many. The historically high turnout (68 percent) had led commentators to speculate whether something was finally changing in Hungary, which has been firmly ruled by Viktor Orbán’s far-right Fidesz party since 2010. Many expected the high voter turnout to boost the opposition.

It wasn’t to be. Fidesz won handily, receiving over 49 percent of the vote and winning all but a handful of electoral districts in Budapest and a few other places.

The incredulity of the Budapest-based intelligentsia speaks volumes about the state of the country’s opposition — and of the deepening divide between citizens in the capital and elsewhere. But their sense of shock was also puzzling: pollsters had predicted the results quite precisely. Fidesz was favored to triumph. Many were simply unwilling to believe that the party would win so resoundingly, especially given the large share of voters involved in a “tactical vote” movement.